เวลาชาวบ้านชาวเมืองเขามีปัจจัยบวก พี่ไทยเราก็ไม่เคยมีปัจจัยบวกเป็นกรณีพิเศษให้เหนือกว่าเขา แต่พอคนอื่นมีปัจจัยลบอยู่แล้ว บ้านเรายังมีปัจจัยลบซ้ำซ้อน ทับถมตลาดหุ้นในประเทศให้กระดิกตัวยากขึ้นไปอีก

 ยิ่งใกล้นับถอยหลังจำนวนวันจากตัวเลขสองหลัก เหลือตัวเลขหลักเดียว ก่อนที่จะถึงวันที่ต่างคนต่างประโคมข่าวกับสุดฤทธิ์ ว่าจะเป็นวันประวัติศาสตร์การเมืองไทย ซึ่งก็ไม่เข้าใจว่าทำไมต้องตกอกตกใจกันขนาดนั้น กับอีแค่จะยึดหรือไม่ยึดทรัพย์ของมหาเศรษฐี ที่มีทั้งภาพลักษณ์ของเทวา และซาตาน ในร่างเดียว 

 ยึดหรือไม่ยึด เขาก็ไม่ได้เดือดร้อนมากมายหรอก ที่หมกที่ซุกอยู่ตามเหมืองตามเขา ตามชื่อคนโน้นคนนี้ ยังมีอยู่อีกเยอะ เผลอๆจะเยอะกว่าที่จะถูกยึดด้วยซ้ำ มัวแต่ไปตื่นตูมแทนเขา กลายเป็นเราที่ต้องช้ำกันเองซะมากกว่า

 เมื่อบรรยากาศตลาดหุ้น มันไม่ชวนชมชวนชิมแล้ว ก็ขอพาเลาะมาเที่ยวดูตลาดเงิน ตลาดบอนด์ กันแก้เซ็งกันไปพลางก่อนๆ 

 แต่ไม่รู้ว่า พอเห็นแล้วจะเซ็งหนักกว่าเกาหรือเปล่า เพราะถ้าดูกันที่ผลตอบแทนจากอัตราดอกเบี้ยเงินฝาก ก็ยังคงต่ำต่อเนื่อง ถ้าเงินต้นไม่ใช่ก้อนใหญ่จริงๆ ก็แทบจะไม่รู้สึกถึงพลังแห่งดอกเบี้ยเอาเสียเลย

 ส่วนการออกโครงการเงินฝากดอกเบี้ยพิเศษ ที่หลายๆแบงก์แข่งกันโครมๆอยู่ตอนนี้ เอาเข้าจริง ผลตอบแทนก็ไม่ได้เข้าตามากนัก เพียงแต่ดีกว่าเรทปกตินิดหน่อย ให้ได้ปลอบใจตัวเองว่า อย่างนอกก็ยังฉลาดในการเลือกฝากอยู่บ้าง

 หันไปดูที่ตราสารหนี้ ซึ่งในที่นี้จะขอพูดถึงกลุ่มที่อายุสั้นๆ ช่วงเดือนสองเดือนมานี้ ผลตอบแทนจากตั๋วเงินคลัง และพันธบัตรแบงก์ชาติ อายุสั้นๆ เริ่มฟื้นตัวขึ้นมาจากปลายปีก่อนแล้ว จากระดับต่ำ 1% ซึ่งถือว่าผิดปกติ ก็มีอยู่ที่ 1% กว่า ตามสูตรที่ควรจะเป็น 

 แต่ให้เพิ่มขึ้นมายังไง ก็ยังดูน้อยอยู่ดี เลยเดือดร้อนให้ต้องไปหาซื้อของกันนอกประเทศ เผื่อจะได้อะไรที่มีเนื้อมีหนังเพิ่มขึ้นบ้าง

 เมื่อความคิดตกผลึกได้ดังนั้น ถนนเกือบทุกสายเลยยังคงมุ่งหน้าเข้าสู่เกาหลีใต้เช่นเดิม เสมือนหนึ่งเป็นยาสามัญประจำบ้าน ที่พออยากจะได้อะไรที่ให้ผลตอบแทนสูงกว่าตราสารหนี้ในประเทศขึ้นมา ก็วิ่งหาเกาหลีใต้ก่อน เนื่องจากแบรนด์นี้ติดตลาดไปแล้ว จนแทบจะไม่เหลือคำถามว่าเสี่ยงมั๊ย จะดีเหรอ แน่ใจหรือเปล่า

 คำถามพวกนี้ พักหลังๆมาไม่มีให้ได้ยิน เพราะคนคุ้นชินเหมือนว่าบอนด์เกาหลีใต้กับบอนด์ไทย เป็นของใช้แทนกันได้ไปแล้ว

 ส่วนคำถามที่เหลืออยู่ก็คือ แล้วได้ผลตอบแทนเท่าไหร่ สเปรดสูงกว่าในประเทศแค่ไหน ถ้าคำตอบที่ได้เป็นที่พอใจ ก็ควักกระเป๋าลงทุนกันได้เลย

 อย่างไรก็ตาม ใครที่เชื่อมั่นและพึงใจ ในบอนด์แบรนด์เกาหลีไปแล้ว จนแทบไมได้คิดอะไร ขายมาก็ซื้อไปเรื่อย ก็ขอให้เริ่มคิดมากขึ้นกว่าเดิมหน่อย เพราะดูมาดูไป มันก็มีรายละเอียดปลีกย่อยให้ต้องคอยตัดสินใจอยู่เช่นกัน

 เหมือนอย่างที่คุณมนรัฐ ผดุงสิทธิ์ เอ็มดีของ บลจ.วรรณ แกเอาจริงเอาจัง อธิบายให้นักข่าวฟังเมื่อวันก่อนว่า ตอนนี้ทุกคนแทบจะรู้หมด ว่าเทรนด์ดอกเบี้ยจะเป็นขาขึ้น และควรจะอยู่ในบอนด์ระยะสั้นเป็นหลัก เรียกว่าท่องกันได้ขึ้นใจ ว่าต้องใช้กลยุทธ์นี้ 

 แต่ที่บางคนหรือหลายคนอาจจะยังตอบไม่ได้ คือ แล้วเทรนด์ดอกเบี้ยที่ว่าขึ้น จะขึ้นยังไง ขึ้นมากหรือขึ้นน้อย ส่วนที่บอกว่าต้องอยู่ในบอนด์สั้น ต้องสั้นแค่ไหน ถึงจะเหมาะจะควร

 ด้วยความที่แกกำลังเปิดกองทุนพันธบัตรเกาหลีใต้อยู่ คุณมนรัฐ ก็เลยขอเจาะไปที่ตลาดเกาหลีใต้เลยว่า ที่บอกว่าดอกเบี้ยจะขึ้น ก็เชื่อว่าขึ้น แต่ดูแล้วเศรษฐกิจเกาหลีในครึ่งปีหลัง น่าจะโตแบบชะลอตัวจากครึ่งปีแรก เมื่อมองได้อย่างนี้ ก็คือดอกเบี้ยขึ้นได้ แต่ไม่น่าจะแรง เป็นการเลี้ยงคลัชเลี้ยงคันเร่งขึ้นสะพานไปเรื่อยๆ

 ถัดมา ก็มาเลือกช่วงอายุที่จะลงทุนกัน ตอนนี้บอนด์เกาหลี 6 เดือน ได้ผลตอบแทนราว 1.6% ส่วน 3 เดือนได้อยู่ 1.3% ถ้าให้โจทย์เทียบระหว่าง 2 ช่วงอายุนี้ จะเลือกอายุไหน

 จะตอบได้ต้องกลับไปดูเรื่องแรก คือ เมื่อมองแล้วว่า ดอกเบี้ยจะขึ้นไม่แรง ถ้าเลือกแบบ 3 เดือนไปตอนนี้ ได้ 1.3% เมื่อครบ 3 เดือนแล้วจะลงใหม่ จะต้องได้ผลตอบแทนถึง 1.9% ถึงจะทำให้เมื่อหารเฉลี่ยออกมาแล้ว จะได้เท่ากับการเลือกลงคราวแลกเป็น 6 เดือนแล้วได้ผลตอบแทน 1.6%

คำนวณมาได้แบบนี้ คุณมนรัฐ ฟันธงเลยว่า ลง 6 เดือนเลยคุ้มกว่า เพราะไม่เชื่อว่าหลังจากผ่านไป 3 เดือนแล้ว ผลตอบแทนจะขึ้นจาก 1.3% เป็น 1.9% เพื่อเฉลี่ยออกมาใหเป็น 1.6% ได้

นี่ก็เป็นตัวอย่างและมุมมองด้านหนึ่ง ที่ชีให้เห็นว่า ในของที่ดูว่าง่าย ไม่ต้องคิดอะไร แต่ก็ยังมีอะไรให้ต้องคิดอีกเยอะ  หรือแม้จะเป็นยาสัญประจำบ้าน แต่ถ้ารู้จัดเขย่าก่อนกินซะหน่อย ก็จะทำให้ยาออกฤทธิ์ดีขึ้น

โดย .... นายคิดดี

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