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Home Daily Research เตือนนักลงทุน! อย่าคาดหวัง Fed ใจอ่อนเรื่องดอกเบี้ยในเร็ววันนี้
เตือนนักลงทุน! อย่าคาดหวัง Fed ใจอ่อนเรื่องดอกเบี้ยในเร็ววันนี้ PDF Print E-mail
Wednesday, 21 September 2022 07:40

รายงานตัวเลขอัตราเงินเฟ้อของสหรัฐอเมริกาล่าสุดในเดือนสิงหาคมที่ลดลงเมื่อเทียบกับช่วงเดือนก่อนหน้า ตามแรงกดดันที่ผ่อนคลายลงจากปัจจัยทางราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ ส่งสัญญาณถึงทิศทางการปรับเปลี่ยนนโยบายการเงินของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ (Fed) โดยเฉพาะการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยนโยบายในช่วงที่เหลือของปีนี้คงเป็นไปได้ยาก ขณะที่นักลงทุนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์ต่างประเมินว่า ธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ จะเริ่มปรับลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยนโยบายภายในปี 2566 แม้จะมีความเป็นไปไม่ได้เลยก็ตาม

อย่างไรก็ตาม แนวโน้มของอัตราเงินเฟ้อที่เริ่มผ่อนคลายลงนั้น ยังไม่สามารถสร้างความเชื่อมั่นให้แก่นักลงทุนได้อย่างเต็มที่ และยังมีความจำเป็นอย่างมากที่จะต้องใช้ความระมัดระวังในเรื่องการพิจารณาเลือกการลงทุน เพื่อหลีกเลี่ยงความเสี่ยงต่อภาวะขาดทุน เพราะในรายงานดัชนีราคาผู้บริโภค (CPI) ล่าสุดเมื่อวันอังคารที่ 13 กันยายน บ่งชี้ถึงสถานการณ์ของอัตราเงินเฟ้อสหรัฐฯ แม้จะปรับตัวลดลงจากที่เคยสูงสุดในเดือนมิถุนายน แต่อัตราเงินเฟ้อยังคงเพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่า 8% เมื่อเทียบกับระยะเดียวกันปีก่อน แม้แรงกดดันทางด้านของราคาพลังงานจะปรับตัวลดลงแล้วก็ตาม

ใครก็ตามที่เล็งจะซื้อขายตามความคาดหวังของนักลงทุนในตลาดนั้นอาจต้องช้ำใจอีกครั้ง เนื่องด้วยรายงาน CPI ของวันอังคารที่ 13 กันยายน แสดงให้เห็นว่าอัตราตัวเลข Headline ประจำปียังคงออกห่างจากระดับสูงสุดเมื่อเดือนมิถุนายนที่ผ่านมา สาเหตุมาจากราคาพลังงานที่ลดลง แต่ถึงอย่างนั้นก็ยังคงเพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่า 8% ต่อปี และการอ่านตัวเลข Core Reading ถูกมองว่าเป็นพื้นฐานที่ดีสำหรับธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ ซึ่งกำลังพยายามยับยั้งแรงกดดันที่เพิ่มขึ้นอีกครั้งเหนือ 6% ไม่ว่าคุณจะปรับขนาดการลงทุนให้เล็กและเป็นวงแคบลงอย่างไร ตัวเลขก็ยังคงแสดงว่าการเติบโตของราคายังคงเป็นในแบบกว้างและแข็งแกร่งอยู่ดี

ขณะเดียวกัน กองทุนฟิวเจอร์ของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ ประเมินว่า การปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยนโยบายจะแตะระดับสูงสุดใกล้เคียงระดับ 4.5% ในช่วงเดือนมีนาคม 2566 ก่อนที่จะเริ่มเข้าสู่ทิศทางที่ผ่อนคลายลง ซึ่งสถานการณ์ลักษณะเช่นนี้อาจก่อตัวเป็นปัจจัยเสี่ยงกระทบต่อภาวะเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ ชะลอตัวได้ และส่งผลต่อการเปลี่ยนแปลงทางด้านนโยบายต่างๆ เช่นเดียวกับที่สหรัฐฯ เคยเผชิญกับภาวะการถดถอยของเศรษฐกิจในช่วงปี 1970 เพราะผู้กำหนดนโยบายปล่อยให้อัตราเงินเฟ้อยึดติดอยู่กับที่ ซึ่งทำให้การใช้นโยบายการเงินเพื่อมาควบคุมทำได้ยากขึ้น

ทั้งนี้ นาย Jerome Powell ประธานธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ เน้นย้ำในที่ประชุมนโยบายเศรษฐกิจประจำปีของเฟด จัดขึ้นที่เมือง Jackson Hole รัฐไวโฮมิง ระหว่างวันที่ 25-27 สิงหาคมที่ผ่านมาว่า เป้าหมายของการดำเนินนโยบายการเงินของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ คือการหลีกเลี่ยงความผิดพลาดซ้ำจากการใช้นโยบายที่อาจส่งผลกระทบต่อเศรษฐกิจเช่นเดียวกับที่เคยเกิดขึ้นมาแล้วในอดีต ดังนั้นผู้ที่กำหนดนโยบายการเงินอาจจะต้องเลือก ระหว่างการอดทนต่อผลกระทบในบางด้านของเศรษฐกิจ กับผลกระทบต่อระบบเศรษฐกิจโดยรวมทั้งประเทศซึ่งจะสร้างความเสียหายมากกว่า นั้นเพราะความล้มเหลวในการฟื้นฟูเสถียรภาพราคาย่อมหมายถึงความเจ็บปวดที่หนักกว่ามาก

อย่างไรก็ตาม ปัจจุบันยังไม่พบสัญญาณที่เด่นชัดของการก่อตัวของปัจจัยเสี่ยงที่จะส่งกระทบต่อเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐฯ โดยเฉพาะปัจจัยทางด้านอัตราเงินเฟ้อ ขณะเดียวกันตลาดแรงงานยังมีความแข็งแกร่ง โดยเฉพาะค่าจ้างที่ยังคงเป็นแนวโน้มขาขึ้นเมื่อเทียบกับช่วงก่อนการระบาดของโรคโควิด-19 ส่งผลดีต่อการขยายตัวทางด้านการอุปโภคบริโภคภาคเอกชน

แม้ว่าปัจุบัน ราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ของสหรัฐฯ อยู่ในช่วงขาลงได้ผ่อนคลายแรงกดดันต่อการใช้นโยบายการเงินที่เข้มข้นของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ แต่การปรับตัวของอัตราเงินเฟ้อเพื่อเข้าสู่เป้าหมายที่ 2% ต่อปี ยังคงต้องใช้เวลาอีกระยะหนึ่ง ซึ่งในอดีตช่วงปี 1970 และ 1980 สหรัฐฯ ใช้เวลาในการปรับทิศทางของอัตราเงินเฟ้อจากที่เคยพุ่งสู่ระดับสูงสุดให้ลดเหลือครึ่งหนึ่งนานถึง 15 เดือน

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